At this time, viral load skyrockets, increasing a person’s infectiousness by as much as 26 times (the same thing as saying “26-fold”).
One such factor is acute infection, the period of six to 12 weeks after contracting the virus. They are general ballpark figures that do not reflect the many factors that can raise and lower risk. So how do we go from the odds being 1 out of 70 that HIV will be transmitted during the most risky sex act to the odds being 1 out of 2 that young gay men in the United States will contract HIV before they’re 50? (And before you even think it: No, the answer is not that everyone with HIV is a ginormous slut who has never heard of safer sex.)įor starters, you have to understand that these probabilities of HIV transmission per single exposure are averages.
Other researchers have predicted that half of all gay men in America who are 22 years old today will be HIV positive by the time they’re 50. Say what? Is HIV really this hard to transmit, especially in light of the alarming statistics we are bombarded with? Although the CDC estimates that nearly 1.1 million Americans are living with HIV and that the rate of new infections remains stable at about 50,000 per year, there has been a 12 percent increase between 20 among men who have sex with men (MSM)-including a 22 percent jump among young MSM ages 13 to 24.Ī report by the Black AIDS Institute states that African-American same-gender-loving men have a 25 percent chance (which is one in four odds) of contracting HIV by the time they’re 25 years old-and a 60 percent chance by the time they’re 40. If the guy pulls out before ejaculation, then the odds are 1 out of 154. Specifically, it is 1.43 percent, or 1 out of 70. And if an HIV-negative person bottoms for an HIV-positive top who doesn’t use any protection but does ejaculate inside, the chances of HIV transmission are, on average, less than 2 percent. The risk of contracting HIV during vaginal penetration, for a woman in the United States, is 1 per 1,250 exposures (or 0.08 percent) for the man in that scenario, it’s 1 per 2,500 exposures (0.04 percent, which is the same as performing fellatio).Īs for anal sex, the most risky sex act in terms of HIV transmission, if an HIV-negative top-the insertive partner-and an HIV-positive bottom have unprotected sex, the chances of the top contracting the virus from a single encounter are 1 in 909 (or 0.11 percent) if he’s circumcised and 1 in 161 (or 0.62 percent) if he’s uncircumcised. The risk from giving a blowjob to an HIV-positive man not on treatment is at most 1 in 2,500 (or 0.04 percent per act). For example, the average risk of contracting HIV through sharing a needle one time with an HIV-positive drug user is 0.67 percent, which can also be stated as 1 in 149 or, using the ratios the CDC prefers, 67 out of 10,000 exposures. Probabilities of HIV transmission per exposure to the virus are usually expressed in percentages or as odds (see chart at the end of this article). But do they give us a better understanding of HIV risk and sexual health? Let’s do the math. Numbers seem less abstract, more specific. That’s why many of us seek out percentages and ratios when we talk about risk. Sure, you can Google the subject, but the results may further confuse and scare you.Ī Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) fact sheet describes the probability of oral sex transmission as “low.” But what does that mean? The website puts it this way: “You can get HIV by performing oral sex on your male partner, although the risk is not as great as it is with unprotected anal or vaginal sex.” Regarding going down on a woman, the site explains: “HIV has been found in vaginal secretions, so there is a risk of contracting HIV from this activity.”ĭoes this put your mind at ease? Hardly. Americans really want to know their HIV risk during fellatio-even more so than during anal sex.
Go to #Prevention, #Undetectable, #TasP and #PrEP for the latest related updates.Ĭan you get HIV from oral sex? That’s probably one of the most common questions AIDS service providers and doctors get asked.
treatment as prevention, or TasP), as well as the effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). EDITOR’S NOTE: Although the underlying ideas and messages in this article remain relevant, much HIV prevention research has been published since 2014, notably about there being effectively no risk of transmitting the virus if you are HIV positive and undetectable (a.k.a.